DAVAO CITY — As the end of the general community quarantine (GCQ) ends on May 31, researchers from the University of the Philippines (UP) have classified Davao City as a “high risk” area as the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus failed to go down.
“For Davao City, the reproduction number R is greater than 1, and there was a corresponding increase in case reports. In this regard, Davao City is classified as ‘High Risk,’” researchers Guido David, Ph.D.; Ranjit Singh Rye, MPA; and Ma Patricia Agbulos, MBM said in their latest forecast issued on May 26, 2020.
The study covered the first week of the implementation of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila, Laguna, and Cebu City as well as the general community quarantine (GCQ) in the rest of the country which started on May 16, 2020.
According to the study, a value of “R” that is higher than 1 means the rate of infection has continued to rise and the curve has not flattened. In contrast, a value R that is lower than 1 indicates a flattening of the curve.
The study showed that Davao City’s average for the week of May 19 to 25 was 3.4 new COVID-19 cases per day per million of population.
“Its R value is 2.41, hence it is currently classified as ‘High Risk,’” the researchers said.
The study period did not include May 26 which saw the sharpest increase in Davao City with 18 new cases.
As of May 26, Davao City has a total of 249 positive cases, of which 22 have died.
There have been sharp spikes since the start of the GCQ, including 15 new cases reported on May 18; 13 on May 21; and 18 on May 26.
Other high risk areas in the country are the National Capital Region, Bataan, and Laguna.
Medium risk areas are Cebu City and Mandaue City, while low risk areas are Batangas and Zamboanga City.
Surge in June
Mayor Sara Duterte herself said she is expecting a surge of new cases in the first two weeks of June because of the freer movement of people since the start of the GCQ on May 16.
“Ang expectation sa doctor, ang acceleration, ang surge will be next week and second week of June. So mao na iyahang expectation nga mudaghan gyud na og samot because of GCQ,” she said in her regular interview with Davao City Disaster Radio on Wednesday.
(The doctors expect that the acceleration and surge will be next week and the second week of June. It is their expectation that the cases will rise because of the GCQ.)
She said aside from our GCQ status, COVID-19 positive cases are expected to rise because the number of swabs at the Southern Philippines Medical Center (SPMC) has risen the past few days.
“Motaas dyud ang COVID-19 positives nato kay ginapakusgan pa nato ang atong case finding, health screening, ug rapid diagnostic test (RDT),” she said.
(The number of COVID-19 positives will rise because we are strengthening our case finding, health screening, and rapid diagnostic test.)
In the same interview, the mayor appealed to Davaoeños to make it a habit to pray every night for a miracle to solve the COVID-19 pandemic.
She said there are only three ways to stop the spread of COVID-19: a vaccine, a cure, and a miracle from God.
“Karon ang mahimo lang nato is to follow our action plan to manage the spread of COVID-19,” she said.
(For now all we can do is follow our action plan to manage the spread of COVID-19.)
May 27, 2020 – Wednesday 6:05 PM by JON JOAQUIN, ROMEO BRACEROS
Discussion about this post